It seems like a sure thing, with less than four weeks until Selection Sunday, that UConn, UCLA and South Carolina will all be on the one-line as top seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
By almost every metric the Huskies, Bruins and Gamecocks rank first, second and third, respectively. That’s true for the NET, Her Hoop Stats Rating and Bart Torvik. In WAB, UConn is fourth, UCLA is first and South Carolina is third. The Huskies are lone undefeated team in the nation, UCLA leads the country in Quad 1 wins with 14, and South Carolina has the best win percentage in Quad 1 games in the SEC — arguably the deepest conference in the nation.
The question is, who gets the fourth No. 1 seed?
Texas, Michigan and Vanderbilt seem to be the best candidates. Vanderbilt was projected as the fourth overall seed in the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s top 16 reveal on Saturday night, but then the Commodores lost at Georgia while the Longhorns and Wolverines picked up impressive wins.
For now, USA Today Sports is projecting Texas as the fourth No. 1 seed.
Chances exist for LSU, Louisville and Duke too, but those scenarios would likely involve one of those three teams playing near-perfect basketball from now through the end of their conference tournaments, plus the three teams ahead of them choking in dramatic ways.
Elsewhere in the top 16, the No. 4 seeds — the final hosting spots for the opening weekend of March Madness — are far from locked in. If Ole Miss, North Carolina or West Virginia have great finishes to their seasons, they could find themselves hosting. The Rebels picked up an important win Tuesday night, defeating Tennessee by double figures at home in Oxford, Mississippi.
Here’s USA Today Sports’ projection of the top 16 seeds in the Women’s NCAA Tournament as of Wednesday, Feb. 18:
1. UConn
2. UCLA
3. South Carolina
4. Texas
5. Michigan
6. Vanderbilt
7. LSU
8. Louisville
9. Duke
10. Iowa
11. TCU
12. Maryland
13. Oklahoma
14. Ohio State
15. Michigan State
16. Kentucky
In the hunt: Ole Miss, North Carolina, West Virginia, Tennessee, Baylor, Minnesota
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes: Nebraska, Richmond, Syracuse, Villanova
Last Four In: Princeton, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Virginia
First Four Out: Clemson, Colorado, South Dakota State, Stanford
Next Four Out: Utah, Cal, Seton Hall, Kansas
Ultimately, a few things are going to determine how the bubble picture plays out. How the teams in the middle of the standings in the ACC and Big 12 finish their seasons, and how four mid-major conference tournaments end.
Currently, USA Today Sports is projecting a bid-stealing situation in the Ivy League. Columbia is not currently in position to get an at-large bid, but the Lions swept Princeton in the regular season and are now in first-place. Princeton, however, does have a strong enough resume to get an at-large bid, so they’re in a sense stealing a bid that typically goes to an at-large Power 4 team.
This situation could also play out in the Summit League and the MAAC, where North Dakota State and Fairfield have resumes worthy of at-large consideration. If those teams lose their conference tournaments, the bubble could get very messy.
It’s more likely that a bid-stealing situation rises out of the Atlantic-10, where Rhode Island and Richmond both have resumes that could land them at-large bids, and where George Mason looks like a real threat to win the conference tournament for a second year in a row. Don’t sleep on Davidson either, a sharp 3-point shooting team that could get hot in a tournament setting.
The ACC and Big 12 will be rooting for those four conference tournaments to go chalk. Of the teams currently on the bubble, Virginia has the most opportunities to play its way safely into the field with upcoming games against Louisville, North Carolina and rival Virginia Tech before the ACC Tournament starts. In the Big 12, Arizona State has the chance to pad its position with road games at Iowa State and Texas Tech left in the regular season.